Economic and Financial Impacts of the Draft Transition Plan for BC Salmon Farms

The “Economic and Financial Impacts of the Draft Transition Plan for BC Salmon Farms” is an analysis of the economic and financial impacts of a ban on marine net-pen salmon farming as proposed in the Government of Canada’s Draft Salmon Aquaculture Transition Plan for British Columbia, September 2024.

Going directly to a ban by 2029 will result in significant long-term negative socio-economic impacts in British Columbia and Canada. It will reverse and harm once positive Indigenous economic development and reconciliation efforts and severely impact employment in areas with a history of underemployment. An unjustified ban and push to unproven technology on salmon farming in B.C. will reduce Canadian agri-food production by 400 million healthy meals per year, eliminate B.C.’s top agri-food export, destroy 4,560 jobs, and cost Canadian taxpayers at least $9 billion.

The anticipated impacts of the ban are as follows:

1.  Loss of $1.17 billion in annual economic activity, $435 million in GDP, and 4,560 fewer well-paid full-time jobs with a combined annual payroll of approximately $259 million.

2.  Loss of $437 million in spending with over 1,400 vendors across B.C.

3.  Elimination of a further 50,000 tonnes of farmed salmon production.

4.  Reverse meaningful Indigenous reconciliation, self-determination and rights and title for impacted First Nations.

5.  Devastation to several rural, B.C. coastal communities—the removal of this critical industry for Vancouver Island, with an average salary that is 30 percent higher than the median employment income, takes away meaningful career opportunities and the ability for rural, coastal, and Indigenous communities to attract and retain their youth.

6.  Impose unnecessary costs on Canadian taxpayers of at least $9 billion to compensate for the industry’s closure and to subsidize unproven closed containment tech companies.

7.  It ignores the existing responsible plans of B.C. salmon farmers and First Nations to minimize further interactions between farmed and wild salmon – which would deliver the same policy outcome as the ban without the devastating consequences for coastal and Indigenous communities.

8.  Contradicts the government’s own policies, resulting in the complete loss of investor confidence in Canada to invest in new innovations and technologies.

Figure 1. BC Salmon Farming Impacts, Canada-wide
*Growth scenarios are based on company projections of potential recovery of production under the responsible transition plan.

B.C. salmon farming companies, suppliers, and First Nations within whose territory’s salmon farming operates have communicated to the federal government that transition cannot be a “ban” on marine net-pen salmon aquaculture in five years. If it is, then there is no future for salmon farming in B.C. 

A ban on marine net pens means that most of the innovative technologies being developed and tested by salmon farming companies and other tech suppliers cannot be deployed in B.C. But these innovations can deliver the same outcome as a “ban”, by further reducing potential interactions between farm-raised salmon and wild salmon over time. 

This begs the question: if the same outcome can be achieved using achievable innovative technologies, what is the justification for banning marine net-pen aquaculture in B.C. coastal waters by June 30, 2029? 

Major investments in innovation are being made by salmon farmers worldwide, but not in B.C. due to the dramatic production cuts caused by the federal government and the resulting economic impacts that have put the future of salmon farming companies in B.C. at risk. Salmon farmers are developing and testing world-leading innovations and deploying those innovations once they have been proven to be sound from a risk, cost, and sustainability perspective. 

It will take much longer than the five-year time frame set out in the government’s June 2024 transition decision to adopt the right combination of technologies suitable to specific site conditions and characteristics in B.C. In the absence of near-term stability measures by the government, including movement away from the term “ban” and DFO-initiated regulatory decisions that could result in further loss of production volume, the ability to invest and innovate in B.C. salmon farming will disappear. 

However, if the federal transition plan is what is stated on page 1 of the Government of Canada’s Draft Salmon Aquaculture Transition Plan for British Columbia: “transition to closed containment and other innovative aquaculture technology adoption,” then the industry and First Nations believe there is a chance for a realistic and achievable path forward “toward a future sustainable, innovative and thriving aquaculture sector for B.C.” 

To achieve this, B.C. salmon farmers, in partnership with First Nations in whose territories the sector operates, have presented detailed plans to further eliminate potentially harmful interactions between farm-raised and wild salmon in B.C. 

B.C. salmon farmers and First Nations have presented responsible plans to the Government of Canada that demonstrate potential economic gains and achieve the same outcome as a ban. If supported, by 2030, the salmon farming sector expects to generate over $2.5 billion in output, $930 million in GDP, and 9,800 jobs, paying $560 million in wages annually. By 2040, the annual economic benefits could reach $4.2 billion in output, $1.55 billion in GDP, over 16,260 jobs and $920 million in wages for Canadian workers.